Sunk Cost Fallacy

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We all have seen the sunk cost fallacy in action at some point, whether it be sitting through that bad movie because we have already paid for it or finishing that awful book because we were already halfway through. Everyone has been in a situation where they ended up wasting more time because they were trying to salvage the time they had already invested. A sunk cost, also known as a retrospective cost, is one that has already been incurred and cannot be recovered by any additional action. The sunk cost fallacy refers to the tendency of human beings to make decisions based on how much of an investment they have already made, which leads to even more investment but no returns whatsoever. Sometimes, hard as it is, the best thing to do is to let go.

A way to save yourself from this cognitive bias is by focusing on future benefits and costs rather than the already lost past costs. You have to develop the habit, hard as it is, of ignoring the previous cost information.   

Rahul Agarwal writing in Built in

Two Unhealthy Ways of Relating to the World

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Most people who come to see a psychiatrist are suffering from what is called either neurosis or a character disorder. Put most simply, these two conditions are disorders of responsibility, and as such they are opposite styles of relating to the world and its problems. The neurotic assumes too much responsibility ; the person with character disorder not enough. When neurotics are in conflict with the world they automatically assume that they are at fault. When those with character disorders are in conflict with the world they automatically assume that the world is at fault. 

Even the speech patterns of neurotics and those with character disorders are different. The speech of the neurotic is notable for such expressions as “I ought to,” “I should,” and “I shouldn’t” indicating the individual’s self0image as an inferior man or woman always falling short of the mark, always making the wrong choices. The speech of a person with a character disorder, however ,relies heavily on “I can’t,” “I couldn’t” “I have to,” and “I had to” demonstrating a self-image of a being who has no power of choice, whose behavior is completely directed by external forces total beyond his or her control.

As might be imagined, neurotics, compared with character disordered people, are easy to work with in psychotherapy because the assume responsibility for their difficulties and there fore see themselves as having problems. Whose with character disorders are much more difficult, if not impossible, to work with because they don’t see themselves as the source of their problems; they see the world rather than themselves as being in need of change and there fore fail to recognize the necessity for self-examination.

M Scott Peck, The Road Less Traveled

 

Sexual Repression

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The media has contributed to the confusion in our culture between repression and suppression. "Poster after poster, film after film, novel after novel, (CS) Lewis notes, “associate the idea of sexual indulgence with the ideas of health, normality, youth, frankness, and good humour.” He claims this association gives a false impression and is a lie. “Like all powerful lies,” Lewis explains, “it is based on a truth.. that sex in itself.. is ‘normal’ and ‘healthy’.. the lie consists in the suggestion that any sexual act to which you are tempted at the moment is also healthy and normal.” Lewis adds that human sexuality, like gravity or any other aspect of our universe, cannot in itself be moral or immoral. Sexuality, like the rest of the universe, is given by God and therefore good. How people express their sexuality, on the other hand, can be moral or immoral. 

Armand Nicholi, The Question of God

The joy of third place

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Is third place better than coming in second? Third seems to be a better result if you are in the Olympics. Psychologists at Cornell University say their research shows bronze-medal winners are generally happier than silver medalists. Why? When you come in second place, you focus on what you might have done differently to win. When you come in third you are happy just to get a medal.

The phenomenon of "what if" reasoning (knows as Counterfactual thinking) leads us to imagine how things could have been different rather than on what actually has happened. The bronze winners generally think “what if” I hadn’t won anything and they realize how fortunate they are to be on the podium. But for the silver medalist, “what if” means pondering the little things that might have turned silver into gold. 

It seems counterfactual thinking plays out, not just in games, but in everyday life. If a student misses making a grade of "A" by one point, having scored a "B" is no longer so satisfying. 

"Would I be happier today if only I had married someone else?" “What if I had attended a different school or majored in another field?” “Suppose I had selected a different profession?” 

Miss a flight by five minutes and you are frustrated. But if there’s no way you could make the flight you don't waste time on it. It's like the football team that loses in the final seconds of a game. If the team had gotten blown out, the players could more easily put it behind them and move on. But when victory was so very close, they can always think of little things they might have done differently to affect the outcome.    

Do you puzzle over what you might have done until you what-if yourself into dissatisfaction? Do you get stuck thinking about what almost happened? Do you feel like you are the silver medalist in life?  

It's worth noting that first place has its pitfalls as well. Research indicates that the first runner in a long-distance race puts in three times more effort to maintain that position than the runner-up. The researchers recommend when you are in the lead you should focus on the struggle with oneself rather than the pace of the other runners. 

Stephen Goforth 

31 Questions college students should ask their schools about returning to campus & the virus

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Here are some questions that students, parents, and faculty might ask about a school's plan for handling the virus during the fall semester.

1-Will students be expected to quarantine when they first arrive?

2-Will be outdoor social distancing activities?

3-Will there be a list of dues and don’ts along with an indication of what’s the most important?

4-Will students with underlying conditions get special help?

5-Should students treat their professors differently than students since they are older?

6-Will classrooms be cleaned after every class meeting?

7-What messaging will be used to motivate students to be safe? 

8-How will students be encouraged to wear masks at social events? 

9-Will students coming from lax-mask wearing states be given extra help/encouragement to follow the mask-wearing rules?

10-What will be done to help to correct mistaken beliefs about safety measures on the part of students and staff?

11-What happens if someone refuses to wear a mask?

12-How will testing for the virus be handled?

13-How often will I be tested?

14-Where will testing take place?

15-What happens if someone refuses to be tested?

16-Is there an HR form to be filled out each week by employees about symptoms? Will HR notify the supervisor and work contacts if someone is a potential risk? 

17-What if someone is turned away for testing because they don’t exhibit symptoms but may have been exposed?

18-Will there be an app used to track symptoms?

19-If there is a symptom tracking app used, will there be rewards for using it?

20-Can the tracking be personalized to their pre-existing conditions? 

21-How will shame over contracting symptoms or contracting the disease itself be combated?

22-If someone is self-isolating on campus because of exposure to the virus, how will others be informed (so they don’t intrude)? How will meals be arranged?

23-How will the duties of staff/faculty be handled if the person is self-isolating?

24-Will it be made clear to students what will trigger automatic quarantine?

25-How will contract tracing be handled? (Even if county health authorities say they will conduct tracing, there are reports of this not happening in parts of the country.)  

26-Will a “case manager” be assigned to each COVID-19 case (and who assigns them and is there a system in place to keep up with their findings)? 

27-If the spread happens rapidly, what will happen if case managers are overwhelmed?

28-Will students who reveal they have been to bars (when they are underage) be punished for reporting these contacts?

29-How many cases will trigger parts of the campus to close or restrict services? How many cases will trigger a shut down of the school?

30-Will students clearly be informed about the threshold for campus shutdown? 

31-If I feel unsafe, can I take my classes online?

If you have other questions to suggest, let me know! stephengoforth@gmail.com

We are actors in a play

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We play many roles during our lifetime. The hard part is knowing when to play which role. We are often unaware that the curtain is falling, and another act is about to begin. Don't become one of those sad actors, playing a role that has already ended. You know someone like this: They are no longer relevant, and they are reciting lines that belong in another act, in another time. 

There is another danger: Playing our role on stage and then running off the stage and into the audience. We take a seat and heckle ourselves. It is God's play, not our own: allow him to determine the value of your performance. As actors, we do not know when the final curtain will fall. We do not know the outcome of the play or even how storylines resolve themselves. There are twists that only the author understands.

The thought that "we are all actors in a play" is an old idea that reminds us that we do not have enough information to make heads or tails of too much of what’s going on around us. We are forced to ad-lib, to improvise, to guess our way through life.

CS Lewis wrote, “We keep on assuming that we know the play. We do not even know whether we are in Act I or Act V. We do not know who are the major and who the minor characters. The Author knows.” And then there's Garrison Keillor's quip: "God writes a lot of comedy...the trouble is, he's stuck with so many bad actors who don't know how to play funny."

Stephen Goforth