Farmer plants millions of sunflowers to help brighten hard year

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False Causality

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We are always in search of patterns. The tendency means that sometimes we even find patterns where none really even exist. Our brains are so trained in this way that we will even make sense of chaos to the extent that we can.

Because our training wires us to seek out patterns, it’s crucial to remember the simple maxim that correlation does not imply causation. Just because two variables move in tandem doesn’t necessarily mean that one causes the other.

This principle has been hilariously demonstrated by numerous examples. For instance, by looking at fire department data, you notice that, as more firemen are dispatched to a fire, the more damage is ultimately done to a property. Thus, you might infer that more firemen are causing more damage. In another famous example, an academic who was investigating the cause of crime in New York City in the 1980s found a strong correlation between the number of serious crimes committed and the amount of ice cream sold by street vendors. But should we conclude that eating ice cream drives people to crime? Since this makes little sense, we should obviously suspect that there was an unobserved variable causing both. During the summer, crime rates are the highest, and this is also when most ice cream is sold. Ice cream sales don’t cause crime, nor does crime increase ice cream sales. In both of these instances, looking at the data too superficially leads to incorrect assumptions.

Rahul Agarwal writing in Built in

 

Guilt and Blame

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No one in a relationship problem is ever totally innocent or totally guilty. With this belief, people can always keep the door open to their own faults without engaging in excessive, guilty-provoking self incrimination. Holding back anger for even a short time and engaging in self-analysis in private has the effect of tempering the expression of anger. Confession alters our goals from changing others to changing the relationship. 

Mark Cosgrove, Counseling for Anger

 

Depression Lingers

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There is a chain of events follow the awareness of a loss that starts with mind-body chain of events that leads to depression. While it mind can resolve the loss, the body still needs time to recover. The biochemical changes accompanying the depression take time to return to normal. One may continue to feel depressed long after the problem seems to be resolved.

This is important to remember because many people who experience such temporary losses do not allow time for the body’s chemistry to heal. They are likely to interpret their continued low mood as a sign of failure, reject themselves, and create further loss and depression. Many depressions are perpetuated this way.

The healthiest way to deal with sadness following restoration of the loss is simply to accept it. Give the body time to heal after the mind is recovered.

Archibald Hart, Counseling the Depressed

Making friends

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We picture lovers face to face but friend side by side, their eyes looking ahead. That is why those pathetic people who simply “want friends” can never make any. The very condition of having friends is that we should want something else besides friends. Friendship must be about something, even if it were only an enthusiasm for dominoes or white mice. Those who have nothing can share nothing, those who are going no where can have no fellow-travelers.

CS Lewis, The Four Loves

Bullet-riddled Fighter Planes

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During World War II, researchers from the non-profit research group the Center for Naval Analyses were tasked with a problem. They needed to reinforce the military’s fighter planes at their weakest spots. To accomplish this, they turned to data. They examined every plane that came back from a combat mission and made note of where bullets had hit the aircraft. Based on that information, they recommended that the planes be reinforced at those precise spots.

Do you see any problems with this approach?

The problem, of course, was that they only looked at the planes that returned and not at the planes that didn’t. Of course, data from the planes that had been shot down would almost certainly have been much more useful in determining where fatal damage to a plane was likely to have occurred, as those were the ones that suffered catastrophic damage.

The research team suffered from survivorship bias: they just looked at the data that was available to them without analyzing the larger situation. This is a form of selection bias in which we implicitly filter data based on some arbitrary criteria and then try to make sense out of it without realizing or acknowledging that we’re working with incomplete data.

Rahul Agarwal writing in Built in

Systems not just goals

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Every Olympian wants to win a gold medal. Every candidate wants to get the job. And if successful and unsuccessful people share the same goals, then the goal cannot be what differentiates the winners from the losers. It was only when they implemented a system of continuous small improvements that they achieved a different outcome.

Imagine you have a messy room and you set a goal to clean it. If you summon the energy to tidy up, then you will have a clean room—for now. But if you maintain the same sloppy, pack-rat habits that led to a messy room in the first place, soon you’ll be looking at a new pile of clutter and hoping for another burst of motivation. You’re left chasing the same outcome because you never changed the system behind it. You treated a symptom without addressing the cause. 

James Clear, Atomic Habits

Superforecasters

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They are called “superforecasters” and they make surprisingly accurate predictions about world events. Tara Law writes about these semi-professional forecasters in TIME magazine:

Superforecasters tend to share certain personality traits, including humility, reflectiveness and comfort with numbers. These characteristics might mean that they’re better at putting their ego aside, and are willing to change their minds when challenged with new data or ideas…they may also be more flexible than traditional scientists, because they’re not bound to a particular discipline or approach. Their predictions incorporate research and hard data, but also news reports and gut feelings. They tend to be actively open-minded and curious. They’re in “perpetual beta” mode—always striving to update their beliefs and improve themselves. A willingness to change your mind when presented with new information, contend with your biases, challenge one another’s ideas, and break down problems into specific questions are all desirable qualities in people who make big, important decisions.  

The Cause of Overspending

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Ample market research shows that people who overspend usually do it to feel good or to feel in control, not because they need the items they buy. Slapping down the plastic makes them feel powerful, secure, able to make their way in the world. 

So chiding your spouse, or even just stressing the virtues of scrimping and saving, is going to backfire. The more you talk about that stuff, the more your spouse will feel out of control - the same emotion that drives the indulgences in the first place. 

A more effective strategy is to encourage your spouse to own the problem. Keep track of what your household spends, weekly or monthly, and ask him or her to review those accounts. Don't say anything else. That way the choice to cut back is under your spouse's control, making it more likely to happen. 

If that doesn't work? You know the time has come to get separate bank accounts. 

Finally, you might consider lightening up a little. Marriage is one of life's great blessings. If you think the occasional iToy is expensive, wait until you see how much a divorce costs.  

Tyler Cowen in Money Magazine