The Base Rate Fallacy can get you in trouble

The Base Rate Fallacy comes into play when someone comes to a conclusion without considering all the relevant information. There’s a tendency to over-estimate the value of new information out of context. Consider also, an accurate test is not necessarily a very predictive test. And some facts are provably true but nevertheless can feel false when phrased a certain way. These factors can lead someone to hold misconceptions about medical tests and other data actually mean.