Entrenched Opinions

While lack of knowledge is certainly a major source of bias, professional expertise doesn’t fare much better. Whether we are looking at judges, lawyers, professors, scientists, doctors, engineers, architects, writers, journalists, politicians, investors, economists, managers, coaches, consultants, or computer programmers, sharp differences and entrenched opinions are the norm. Deep experience and expertise do not necessarily lead to objective consensus. As behavioral scientists have long noted, subject matter experts tend to:

1.    Rely too much on societal and professional stereotypes

2.    Overvalue their personal experiences, especially recent ones

3.    Overvalue their personal gut feel

4.    Prefer anecdotes that confirm their existing views

5.    Have limited knowledge of statistics and probability

6.    Resist admitting mistakes

7.    Struggle to keep up with the skills and literature in their fields

8.    Burn out and/or make mistakes in demanding work environments

9.    Avoid criticizing, evaluating, or disciplining their peers

10. Become less open-minded over time

For decades, we have seen the unfortunate results of these traits in criminal sentencing, student grading, medical diagnoses and treatments, hiring and salary negotiations, financial services, editorial coverage, athletic evaluations, political processes, and many other areas.

We may think that we are being impartial and fair, but our minds are full of stereotypes, preconceptions, self-interests, confirmation biases, and other discriminatory forces.

David Moschella writing for the Information Technology & Innovation Foundation

Assume They’re Wrong

From military predictions to technological predictions to sports predictions, when experts foretell the future, it’s always safest to assume they’re wrong. 

Because they are deeply knowledgeable in a particular field, experts are more prone than others to view the world through a too-narrow lens, assuming that the current trends they understand so well are indicators of what is to come. Their expertise reinforces their confidence in their own analysis, blinding them to contrary data or disconfirming evidence. 

As you listen to their smart, persuasive, credible prophecies, just remember: Most of them, most of the time, will be wrong. (You can take my word for it. After all, I’m an expert.)

Jeff Jacoby is a columnist for The Boston Globe