9 AI Predictions

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The Information Riot

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The Internet is an interruption system. It seizes our attention only to scramble it. There’s the problem of hypertext and the many different kinds of media coming at us simultaneously. Every time we shift our attention, the brain has to reorient itself, further taxing our mental resources. Many studies have shown that switching between just two tasks can add substantially to our cognitive load, impeding our thinking and increasing the likelihood that we’ll overlook or misinterpret important information.

On the Internet, where we generally juggle several tasks, the switching costs pile ever higher. We willingly accept the loss of concentration and focus, the fragmentation of our attention, and the thinning of our thoughts in return for the wealth of compelling, or at least diverting, information we receive.

Nicholas Carr
The Shallows

 

Your Sweet Spot

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Once you understand introversion and extroversion as preferences for certain levels of stimulation, you can begin consciously trying to situate yourself in environments favorable to your own personality--neither over-stimulating nor understimulating, neither boring nor anxiety-making. You can optimize your life in terms of what personality psychologists call "optimal levels of arousal" and what I call "sweet spots," and by doing so feel more energetic and alive than before.

Your sweet spot is the place where you're optimally stimulated. You probably seek it out already without being aware that you're doing so. Imagine that you're lying contentedly in a hammock reading a great novel. This is a sweet spot. But after half an hour you realize that you've read the same sentence five times; now you're understimulated. So you call a friend and go out for brunch--in other words, you ratchet up your stimulation level--and as you laugh and gossip over blueberry pancakes, you're back, thank goodness, inside your sweet spot. But this agreeable state lasts only until your friend--an extrovert who needs much more stimulation than you do--persuades you to accompany her to a block party, where you're now confronted by loud music and a sea of strangers.

Your friend's neighbors seem affable enough, but you feel pressured to make small talk above the din of music. Now--bang, just like that--you've fallen out of your sweet spot, except this time you're overstimulated. And you'll probably feel that way until you pair off with someone on the periphery of the party for an in-depth conversation, or bow out altogether and return to your novel.

Imagine how much better you'll be at this sweet-spot game once you're aware of playing it. You can set up your work, your hobbies, and your social life so that you spend as much time inside your sweet spot as possible."

Susan Cain, Quiet: The Power of Introverts in a World that can't stop talking

Buying Happiness

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Not long ago an enterprising professor at the Harvard Business School named Mike Norton persuaded a big investment bank to let him survey the bank’s rich clients. (The poor people in the survey were millionaires.) In a forthcoming paper, Norton and his colleagues track the effects of getting money on the happiness of people who already have a lot of it: a rich person getting even richer experiences zero gain in happiness. That’s not all that surprising; it’s what Norton asked next that led to an interesting insight. He asked these rich people how happy they were at any given moment. Then he asked them how much money they would need to be even happier. “All of them said they needed two to three times more than they had to feel happier,” says Norton.

The evidence overwhelmingly suggests that money, above a certain modest sum, does not have the power to buy happiness, and yet even very rich people continue to believe that it does: the happiness will come from the money they don’t yet have. To the general rule that money, above a certain low level, cannot buy happiness there is one exception. “While spending money upon oneself does nothing for one’s happiness,” says Norton, “spending it on others increases happiness.”

Michael Lewis writing in The New Republic

Wonder & Fear

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The emergent properties of the latest large language models — their ability to stitch together what seems to pass for a primitive form of knowledge of the workings of our world — are not well understood. In the absence of understanding, the collective reaction to early encounters with this novel technology has been marked by an uneasy blend of wonder and fear.

It is not at all clear — not even to the scientists and programmers who build them — how or why the generative language and image models work. And the most advanced versions of the models have now started to demonstrate what one group of researchers has called “sparks of artificial general intelligence,” or forms of reasoning that appear to approximate the way that humans think.

Alexander Karp, CEO of Palantir Technologies, a company that creates data analysis software and works with the U.S. Department of Defense, writing in the New York Times

The building blocks

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The stories we create to understand ourselves become the narrative of our lives, explaining the accidents and choices that have brought us to where we are: when I'm good at, what I care about most, and where I'm headed. If you're among the last kid standing on the sidelines as the softball teams are chosen up, the way you understand your place in the world likely changes a little, shaping your sense of ability and the subsequent paths you take. What you tell yourself about your ability plays a part in shaping the ways you learn and perform-how hard you apply yourself, for example, or your tolerance for risk-taking and your willingness to preserve in the face of difficulty.

But differences in skills, and your ability to convert new knowledge into building blocks for further learning, also shape your routes to success. Many of the best managers and coaches in pro sports were mediocre or poor players but happen to be exceptional students of their games.

Each of us has a large basket of resources in the form of aptitudes, prior knowledge, intelligence, interest, and sense of personal empowerment that shape how we learn and how we overcome our shortcomings. Some of these differences matter a lot-for example, our ability to extract underlying principles for new experiences and to convert new knowledge into mental structures.

Peter C. Brown and Henry L. Roediger III, Make It Stick: The Science of Successful Learning

8 Great Quotes About Teaching with AI  

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Research shows that when students feel confident that they can successfully do the work assigned to them, they are less likely to cheat. And an important way to boost students’ confidence is to provide them with opportunities to experience success. ChatGPT can facilitate such experiences by offering students individualized support and breaking down complex problems into smaller challenges or tasks. The Conversation 

Rather than trying to stop the tools and, for instance, telling students not to use them, in my class I’m telling students to embrace them – but I expect their quality of work to be that much better now they have the help of these tools. Ultimately, by the end of the semester, I'm expecting the students to turn in assignments that are substantially more creative and interesting than the ones last year’s students or previous generations of students could have created. We Forum

ChatGPT can be directed to deliver feedback using positive, empathetic and encouraging language. Forexample, if a student completes a math problem incorrectly, instead of merely telling the student “You are wrong and the correct answer is …,” ChatGPT may initiate a conversation with the student. The Conversation

“AI can help with lesson planning,” Kerry O’Grady, an associate professor of public relations at Columbia University wrote, “ including selecting examples, reviewing key concepts before class, and helping with teaching/activity ideas.” This, she says, can help professors save both time and energy. Chronicle of Higher Ed

I don’t think that AI is going to necessarily destroy education. I don’t think it’s going to revolutionize education, either. I think it’s just going to sort of expand the toolbox of what’s possible in our classrooms. CalMatters

AI could analyze an individual learner's strengths, weaknesses and learning styles during online training and then recommend the most effective teaching methods and most relevant resources. Eventually, AI-powered virtual assistants could become standard features in learning platforms by providing real-time support and feedback to learners as they progress through their courses. TechTarget

Use these tools to help you understand challenging passages in assigned readings, or to build preliminary foundational knowledge to help you understand more difficult concepts. Don’t use AI to cheat — use it as a tool to help you learn. Chronicle of Higher Ed

As AI-enabled cheating roils colleges, professors turn to an ancient testing method— oral examinations, which date at least to ancient Greece, are getting new attention. Wall Street Journal

Obstacles

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The first thing to do about an obstacle is simply to stand up to it and not complain about it or whine under it but forthrightly attack it. Don't go crawling through life on your hands and knees half-defeated. Stand up to your obstacles and do something about them. You will find that they haven't half the strength you think they have.

Norman Vincent Peale, The Power of Positive Thinking

13 things journalists need to know about AI

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A good rule of thumb is to start from the assumption that any story you hear about using AI in real-world settings is, beneath everything else, a story about labor automation.  Max Read’s blog 

This new era requires that newsrooms develop new, clear standards for how journalists will — and won’t — use AI for reporting, writing and disseminating the news. Newsrooms need to act quickly but deliberatively to create these standards and to make them easily accessible to their audiences. Poynter

Any assistance provided to these (AI) companies (by news organizations) could ultimately help put journalists out of business, and the risk remains that, once the media’s utility to the world of AI has been exhausted, the funding tap will quickly be turned off. Media executives can argue that having a seat at the table is better than not having one, but it might just make it easier for big tech to eat their lunch. Columbia Journalism Review 

Google is testing a product that uses artificial intelligence technology to produce news stories, pitching it to news organizations including The New York Times, The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal’s owner, News Corp, according to three people familiar with the matter. New York Times

“Reporters tend to just pick whatever the (AI) author or the model producer has said,” Abeba Birhane, an AI researcher and senior fellow at the Mozilla Foundation, said. “They just end up becoming a PR machine themselves for those tools.” Jonathan Stray, a senior scientist at the Berkeley Center for Human-Compatible AI and former AP editor, said, “Find the people who are actually using it or trying to use it to do their work and cover that story, because there are real people trying to get real things done.” Columbia Journalism Review

Journalists’ greatest value will be in asking good questions and judging the quality of the answers, not writing up the results. Wall Street Journal 

There are 49 supposed news sites that NewsGuard, an organization tracking misinformation, has identified as “almost entirely written by artificial intelligence software.” The Guardian

Recently, AI developers have claimed their models perform well not only on a single task but in a variety of situations … In the absence of any real-world validation, journalists should not believe the company’s claims. Columbia Journalism Review

If media outlets truly wanted to learn about the power of AI in newsrooms, they could test tools internally with journalists before publishing. Instead, they’re skipping to the potential for profit. The Verge

One of the main ways to combat misinformation is to make it clearer where a piece of content was generated and what happened to it along the way. The Adobe-led Content Authenticity Initiative aims to help image creators do this. Microsoft announced earlier this year that it will add metadata to all content created with its generative AI tools. Google, meanwhile, plans to share more details on the images catalogued in its search engine. Axios 

In the newsroom, some media companies have already tried to implement generative AI to create content that is easily automated, such as newsletters and real estate reports. The tech news media CNET started quietly publishing articles explaining financial topics using “‘automated technology’ – a stylistic euphemism for AI,” CNET had to issue corrections on 41 of the 77 stories after uncovering errors despite the articles being reviewed by humans prior to publication. Some of the errors came down to basic math. It’s mistakes such as these that make many journalists wary of using AI tools beyond simple transcription or programming a script. Columbia Journalism Review

OpenAI and the Associated Press are announcing a landmark deal for ChatGPT to license the news organization's archives. Axios

AI in The Newsroom (video) International News Media Association International  

10 Specific Predictions about AI

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Attackers (will) use artificial intelligence to write software that can break into corporate networks in novel ways, change appearance and functionality to beat detection, and smuggle data back out through processes that appear normal. Washington Post

Actor Tom Hanks believes he will be starring in new film roles long after his death, as he speculated on the possibility that his likeness could be captured by AI. Forbes

Any site that depends on contributions from the public — text messages, product reviews, photo or video uploads — is preparing to be swamped with AI-generated input that will make finding signal in the noise even harder for human users. Axios

Robots presented at an AI forum said they expected to increase in number and help solve global problems, and would not steal humans' jobs or rebel against us. Reuters

While much of the media attention has been on large language models, the field of causal AI has gotten comparatively little. If causal reasoning is combined with large language models, it could have a major impact on humanity. Semafor 

In a way, I’m agnostic to that question of “do we need more breakthroughs or will existing systems just scale all the way?” My view is it’s an empirical question, and one should push both as hard as possible. And then the results will speak for themselves. (DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis) The Verge

Artificial intelligences that are trained using text and images from other AIs, which have themselves been trained on AI outputs, could eventually become functionally useless. New Scientist

One need not even know how to program to construct attack software. “You will be able to say, ‘just tell me how to break into a system,’ and it will say, ‘here’s 10 paths in’,” said Robert Hansen, who has explored AI as deputy chief technology officer at security firm Tenable. “They are just going to get in. It’ll be a very different world.” Washington Post

Fifty-six percent of respondents (in a recent survey) think ‘people will develop emotional relationships with AI’ and 35 percent of people said they’d be open to doing so if they were lonely. The Verge 

In 2019, Christian Szegedy, a computer scientist formerly at Google and now at a start-up in the Bay Area, predicted that a computer system would match or exceed the problem-solving ability of the best human mathematicians within a decade. Last year he revised the target date to 2026. New York Times

The best strategy for persuading others to help you achieve something

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Let's say you're considering a wonderful business opportunity, but you also face challenges.

The average leader might gather the team and explain why it's such a great opportunity for the company. The emotionally intelligent leader, however, skips much of that, and frames everything from the point of view of his or her team:

1. First, what the opportunity means for everyone together,

2. Second, what it means for individual contributors, and

3. Finally, what's needed from each person to reach the goal.

The hard part is that it takes more time to think about all of these angles and to craft the right message. On top of all of that, you have the challenge of being brief. But, when done right, you also get the benefit of being far more likely to achieve your goals.

Bill Murphy, Jr. writing in his newsletter

Think About Your Death and Live Better 

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We banish death from our thoughts. But this leads us to make choices in life that actually curtail our happiness. People who express more regrets tend to be those who postponed profound activities that yield meaning, such as practicing religion, appreciating beauty, or spending more time with loved ones.

This is probably because they realized too late that they had implicitly assumed life would always go on and on, so there’s always time to do these meaning-filled things. When we avoid thoughts of death, we unconsciously assume that tomorrow will look a lot like today, so we can do tomorrow what we could do today. But when we focus on death, that increases the stakes at play in the present, and clarifies what we should do with our time. 

Arthur C. Brooks writing in the Atlantic

Relational Diversity

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A 2022 study found that the more “relational diversity” a person has in their social repertoire, the higher their well-being. Using the analogy of a “social portfolio,” Harvard Business School doctoral candidate Hanne Collins and her colleagues found when people socialize with a range of conversation partners — family members, coworkers, friends, and strangers — on a given day, they report feeling happier than those who converse with fewer “categories” of people. 

Allie Volpe writing in Vox

Why should I love my neighbor?

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If anyone asks me why he should love his neighbor, I would not know how to answer him, and I could only ask in my turn why he should pose such a question...It is the individual who is not interested in his fellow men who has the greatest difficulties in life and provides the greatest injury to others. It is from among such individuals that all human failures spring. 

Alfred Adler

Hiring a disruptor

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Peripheral leaders who operate at the geographical and cultural margins of an organization, often see disruption coming much earlier than those at the center. The same leaders are also, research shows, most likely to come up with innovative ideas. But to the leaders at the core of the organization, the concerns of those at its periphery often seem premature and exaggerated, and their plans far too risky.

Hiring a disruptor can be a conservative move, an unconscious way to prove the power of traditions and blame someone else’s style for our irrational investment in them. Any aspiring disruptor who does not get a handle on this dynamic is at risk of being set up. Picking an outsider to deliver, or more precisely embody, that message makes it easier to dismiss the message.  

Gianpiero Petriglieri writing in the Harvard Business Review