Game Theory & Pascal’s Wager

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Pascal’s argument (written in the 1600’s) went like this: Suppose you concede that you don’t know whether or not God exists and therefore assign a 50 percent chance to either proposition How should you weight these odds when decided whether to lead a pious life? If you act piously and God exists, Pascal argued, your gain – eternal happiness - is infinite. If, on the other hand, God does not exist, your loss, or negative return, is small – the sacrifices of piety. To weigh these possible gains and losses, Pascal proposed, you multiply the probability of each possible outcomes by its payoff and add them all up, forming a kind of average or expected payoff. 

In other words, the mathematical expectation of your return on piety is one-half infinity (your gain if God exists) minus one-half a small number (your loss if he does not exist). Pascal knew enough about infinity to know that the answer to this calculation is infinite, and thus the expected return on piety is infinitely positive. Every reasonable person, Pascal concluded, should therefore follow the laws of God. Today this argument is know as Pascal’s wager. 

Pascal’s wager is often considered the founding of the mathematical discipline of game theory, the quantitative study of optimal decision strategies in games.

Leonard Mlodinow, The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives

17 Recent Articles about the Dangers of AI

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Teens & AI Companionship

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“In interviews with The Associated Press and a new study, teenagers say they are increasingly interacting with AI as if it were a companion, capable of providing advice and friendship. ‘Everyone uses AI for everything now. It’s really taking over,’ said Kayla Chege, a high school student in Kansas, who wonders how AI tools will affect her generation. ‘I think kids use AI to get out of thinking.’ More than 70% of teens have used AI companions and half use them regularly, according to a new study from Common Sense Media.” -Associated Press

AI Definitions: Natural Language Processing

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Natural language processing - This type of machine learning transfers language into numbers to make it intelligible to machines. The first step is tokenization, where text is divided into word units called tokens. These tokens are then transformed into vectors. These vectors are lists of numbers. A single word token might be represented by more than 1,000 numbers in a vector. The vector is considered to have a higher dimension when many numbers are used. The meaning is therefore nuanced. A low dimension for a vector means the list of numbers is low. While a low dimension is not as nuanced, it is easier to work with. A deep learning model (typically a transformer model) can use these vectors to understand the meaning of words and determine how the words relate to one other. An example would be “king “relates to “man” while “queen” relates to “woman.”

More AI definitions here

What the Humanities are For

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As one student said to his professor at New York University, in an effort to justify using AI to do his work for him, “You’re asking me to go from point A to point B, why wouldn’t I use a car to get there?” It’s a completely logical argument — as long as you accept the utilitarian vision. The real solution, then, is to be honest about what the humanities are for: You’re in the business of helping students with the cultivation of their character. -Sigal Samuel writing in Vox

22 Articles about the Business of Running an AI Company

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The business of running an AI 

Trump’s ‘anti-woke AI’ order could reshape how US tech companies train their models – Tech Crunch 

Google users are less likely to click on links when an AI summary appears in the results – Pew Research

OpenAI's data center ambitions collide with reality - Axios

Making Sense of the Billion-Dollar AI Mega Deals – The Wrap 

AI's anything-goes moment - Axios

Google and OpenAI are vying for top AI mathlete - Axios 

AI Is Dividing the Fortunes of the Magnificent Seven – Wall Street Journal  

Anthropic launches its first big disruption to the finance industry - Axios  

Reflections on OpenAI (from a recent employee) - Calvin French-Owen 

OpenAI and Anthropic researchers decry ‘reckless’ safety culture at Elon Musk’s xAI – Tech Crunch 

A coalition of funders say they will spend $1 billion to help develop AI tools for public defenders, parole officers, social workers – Associated Press  

Google Discover adds AI summaries, threatening publishers with further traffic declines – Tech Crunch 

Amazon launches AI agent-building platform for businesses to help boost productivity – Semafor  

Their Water Taps Ran Dry When Meta Built an AI data center Next Door – New York Times

Amazon delays Alexa’s web debut — and a faceoff with ChatGPT – Washington Post

The Open-Source Software Saving the Internet From AI Bot Scrapers – 404 Media 

Elon Musk’s AI chatbot Grok launches into antisemitic rant amid updates - Washington Post

How Google AI Overviews is fuelling zero-click searches for top publishers – Press Gazette

OpenAI to release web browser - Reuters

Who’s to blame when AI spews hate? - Washington Post 

Here’s how Character.AI’s new CEO plans to address fears around kids’ use of chatbots - CNN 

AI chatbots’ content rules often frustrate users, study finds - Washington Post 

China's AI Lead

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"China has taken a commanding lead in the exploding field of artificial intelligence (AI) research, despite U.S. restrictions on exporting key computing chips to its rival, finds a new report. In 2000, China-based scholars produced just 671 AI papers, but in 2024 their 23,695 AI-related publications topped the combined output of the United States (6378), the United Kingdom (2747), and the European Union (10,055). U.S. influence in AI research is declining, with China now dominating." -Science.org

I like your style

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Many of us have had the experience of being in a close relationship with someone for whom we could hardly ever do anything right, and also being with other people for whom we could hardly ever do anything wrong. Yet both kinds of people are likely to think about what they value is what really should be valued in an interpersonal relationship.

Often, the difference in what they value is question of style. People tend not to recognize this fact, however. They confuse what they value with what is “right.” 

One person may feel very comfortable with someone who is highly organized, whereas another person feels bored and cramped with the same highly organized person. One person may love to interact with someone who flits from idea to idea and can never finish a sentence, while another person may feel highly frustrated by the same individual.

One person may like someone who is evaluative and often points out the strengths and weaknesses of friends, while another person feels threatened by the same individual. Compatibility in relationships often means finding someone who appreciates not only who we are, in general, but the styles we have, in particular.

Robert Sternberg, Thinking Styles

SEO Fades as GEO Rises

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“Google has made it clear: AI is building the future of search. Google now ranks based on contextual relevance, not just keywords or backlinks. It uses AI and vector embeddings to evaluate who created content, how trustworthy it is, and how it fits within its broader knowledge graph. Most SEO tools and practices haven’t caught up. As new APIs and metrics become more accessible, we’ll see a new generation of SEO roles and tools emerge that align with how Google actually works.” -Digiday

Fearing Outsiders

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"It’s what we call an over-exclusion bias," Mina Cikara, a Harvard psychologist who studies intergroup conflict, said. When you start fearing others "your circle of who you counted as friends is going to shrink. And that means those people outside of the bounds get less empathy, get fewer resources." It also means you become more vigilant and obsessed with marking who is an insider and who is not. "You want to draw those boundaries brighter, so you don’t make any mistakes about who you want to share your resources with or who you want to trust," she says.

Brian Resnick writing in Vox

22 Recent Articles about AI & Teaching

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Towards responsible AI in education: a systematic review on identifying and mitigating ethical risks – Nature  

AI’s giants want to take over the classroom – MIT Tech Review 

I Teach Creative Writing. This Is What A.I. Is Doing to Students. – New  York Times  

Teachers union partners with Anthropic, Microsoft and OpenAI to launch AI-training academy – CBS News  

OpenAI and Microsoft Bankroll New A.I. Training for Teachers – New York Times 

Universities are rethinking computer science curriculum in response to AI tools – TechSpot

How Do You Teach Computer Science in the A.I. Era? - The New York Times

California colleges spend millions to catch plagiarism and AI. Is the faulty tech worth it? - Cal Matters

How ChatGPT and other AI tools are changing the teaching profession – Associated Press  

Does ownership rights over original scholarship extend to the elements of a single course on AI? – Chronicle of Higher Ed  

The Computer-Science Bubble Is Bursting: Artificial intelligence is ideally suited to replacing the very type of person who built it – The Atlantic

A.I. in the Classroom: A Brave New World? - New York Times

Professors Are Using A.I., Too. Now What? – NPR  

How To Stay Ahead Of AI – The Human Skills Universities Must Teach – Forbes  

Duolingo CEO says AI teaches better than humans—but schools will exist ‘because you still need childcare’ - Fortune

My students think it’s fine to cheat with AI. Maybe they’re onto something. - Vox 

Impact of gen AI on students’ learning outcomes: a technology-mediated & motivation-driven approach – Nature  

Chatbots in the classroom: how AI is reshaping higher education - Financial Times

Integrating AI-generated content tools in higher ed: a comparative analysis of interdisciplinary learning outcomes – Nature 

Bringing GenAI into the university classroom - Times Higher Ed

I am no longer chairing defenses or joining committees where students use generative AI for their writing - Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Report: Faculty Often Missing From University Decisions on AI – Inside Higher Ed

The Perceived Emotional Intelligence of AI

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Researchers ran commonly used tests of emotional intelligence on six Large Language Models including generative AI chatbots like ChatGPT.  They are the same kinds of tests that are commonly used in corporate and research settings: scenarios involving complicated social situations, and questions asking which of five reactions might be best. “When we run these tests with people, the average correct response rate … is between 15% and 60% correct. The LLMs on average, were about 80%. So, they answered better than the average human participant.” .-Bill Murphy, Jr

Dave Barry Is told by AI that he’s dead

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"Give Google AI credit for what it got right: That is, in fact, a picture of me, and I did, in fact, win a Pulitzer Prize (trust me, I'm just as shocked as you are). But to the best of my knowledge, I did not pass away last November 20. That is not just my opinion. In recent months I have been examined by two different licensed physicians, and if I had been dead, I'm pretty sure at least one of them would have mentioned it..." -Dave Berry on Substack

Self-Control Is Empathy With Your Future Self

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Empathy depends on your ability to overcome your own perspective, appreciate someone else’s, and step into their shoes. Self-control is essentially the same skill, except that those other shoes belong to your future self—a removed and hypothetical entity who might as well be a different person. So think of self-control as a kind of temporal selflessness. It’s Present You taking a hit to help out Future You.

Impulsivity and selfishness are just two halves of the same coin, as are their opposites restraint and empathy. Perhaps this is why people who show dark traits like psychopathy and sadism score low on empathy but high on impulsivity. Perhaps it’s why impulsivity correlates with slips among recovering addicts, while empathy correlates with longer bouts of abstinence. These qualities represent our successes and failures at escaping our own egocentric bubbles, and understanding the lives of others—even when those others wear our own older faces.

Ed Yong writing in The Atlantic

19 Articles about AI Audio & Video

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Audio

AI-generated music is going viral. Should the music industry be worried? – CNBC  

A ’60s flavored band blew up on Spotify. They’re AI. - The Washington Post

Was That Amazing Video in Your Feed Real or AI? Tech Platforms Are Struggling to Let You Know – Wall Street Journal  

Music streaming service Deezer adds AI song tags in fight against fraud – Associated Press  

2 Ways I'm Using ChatGPT Advanced Voice to Improve My Life – CNET  

Music Producer Timbaland Introduces New AI Artist – Rolling Stone

Google’s NotebookLM just got a huge upgrade — here’s why it beats ChatGPT for team projects – Tom’s Guide

NotebookLM Is My All-Time Favorite AI Tool and Its New Features Make It Even Better - Cnet

How to use Google's AI-powered NotebookLM — 5 tips to get started – Tom’s Guide 

How a Canadian's AI hoax duped the media and propelled a 'band' to streaming success – CBC

Adobe Firefly can now generate AI sound effects for videos - and I'm seriously impressed - ZDnet

Video 

How a Video Studio Embraced A.I. and Stormed the Internet - New York Times 

Netflix admits it used generative AI in a big sci-fi hit to cut costs – The Verge 

Three AI Trends Reshaping the Future of Media & Entertainment – Unite AI

Midjourney launches its first AI video generation model, V1 – Tech Crunch 

An AI-generated ad aired during NBA finals and cost just $2,000 - Mashable  

SAG-AFTRA Video Game Deal Includes AI Consent Guardrails, Minimum Rates for Digital Replica Use – The Wrap 

A.I. Videos Have Never Been Better. Can You Tell What’s Real? – New York Times

An AI video ad is making a splash. Is it the future of advertising? – NPR

AI Definitions: Machine learning

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Machine learning (ML) - This type of AI can spot patterns and then improve what it can do on its own. ML makes predictions or decisions based on patterns in data sets. This process evolves and adapts as it is exposed to new data, improving the output without explicit human programming. An example would be algorithms recommending ads for users, which become more tailored the longer it observes the users‘ habits (someone’s clicks, likes, time spent, etc.). A developer of a ML system creates a model and then “trains” it by providing it with many examples. Data scientists combine ML with other disciplines (like big data analytics and cloud computing) to solve real-world problems. However, the results are limited to probabilities, not absolutes. It doesn’t reveal causation. A subset of “narrow AI,” ML is an alternative approach to symbolic artificial intelligence, better at such chores as spotting faces and recognizing voices. There are four types of machine learning: supervised, unsupervised, semi-supervised, and reinforcement learning. A clever computer program that simply mimics human-like behavior can be considered AI, but the computer system itself is not machine learning unless its parameters are automatically informed by data without human intervention. Video: Introduction to Machine Learning

The Student Herself is the Product

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In a humanities education the student herself is the product. She is what’s getting created and recreated by the learning process. This vision of education — as a pursuit that’s supposed to be personally transformative — is what Aristotle proposed back in Ancient Greece. He believed the real goal was not to impart knowledge, but to cultivate the virtues: honesty, justice, courage, and all the other character traits that make for a flourishing life. -Sigal Samuel writing in Vox

The terror of professional decline

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I suspect that my own terror of professional decline is rooted in a fear of death—a fear that, even if it is not conscious, motivates me to act as if death will never come by denying any degradation in my résumé virtues. This denial is destructive, because it leads me to ignore the eulogy virtues that bring me the greatest joy.  The biggest mistake professionally successful people make is attempting to sustain peak accomplishment indefinitely.

Arthur C. Brooks writing in The Atlantic